CIRIUM SCHEDULE ANALYSIS · Q4 2025 vs Q4 2026
Qatar Airways · QR · DOH Hub

Network in rebalance.
Shanghai doubles.
SFO halved.

Total seats down 1.4%, ASK up 0.4% — the headline numbers mask a rich redistribution. China surging, South Africa building, Caucasus cracking open. Every gain displaces something else: San Francisco cut 42%, Kigali halved, Jeddah trimmed 22%. HIA capacity constraints make every new frequency a hard trade-off.

CIRIUM · Q4 2025 vs Q4 2026 · PAX ONLY
49,935 SCHEDULED FLIGHTS Q4 2026
165 ROUTES · NET −2 VS Q4 2025
Source: Cirium Schedule Analytics
All statistics per quarter · Pax flights only
13.6M
Total seats Q4 2026
↓ −1.4% vs Q4 2025
65.7B
ASK Q4 2026
↑ +0.4% · gauge effect
49,935
Scheduled flights Q4 2026
≈ flat (−0.1%)
+97.8%
Shanghai PVG · biggest mover
33k → 66k seats/Q
165
Hub routes Q4 2026
↓ from 167 · net −2

Capacity gainers.
Where seats are flowing.

Routes with the largest Q4 seat increases from DOH. China, Southern Africa, and East Africa dominate — reflecting both post-COVID demand recovery and deliberate strategic reallocation within HIA's slot ceiling.

Growth Biggest seat increases · DOH outbound · Q4 2025 → Q4 2026
Shanghai+97.8%
China · PVG
33,294 → 65,868 seatsB777-300ER
Zanzibar+46.6%
Tanzania · ZNZ
15,938 → 23,368 seatsB787-8
Montreal+42.0%
Canada · YUL
23,364 → 33,180 seatsA350-1000
Istanbul Sabiha+41.0%
Türkiye · SAW
15,396 → 21,712 seatsA321neo
Cape Town+25.9%
South Africa · CPT
41,471 → 52,228 seatsA350-900 / A350-1000
Maputo+24.3%
Mozambique · MPM
20,942 → 26,036 seatsA350-900
Singapore+21.5%
Singapore · SIN
84,925 → 103,204 seatsA350-900 / A350-1000
Cairo+20.3%
Egypt · CAI
95,247 → 114,606 seatsA330-200 / B777-300ER
Johannesburg+19.9%
South Africa · JNB
69,906 → 83,821 seatsB787-8 / B787-9
Oslo+17.6%
Norway · OSL
32,742 → 38,518 seatsB787-8 / B787-9
Pullbacks Biggest seat reductions · DOH outbound · Q4 2025 → Q4 2026
Venice−55.6%
Italy · VCE
15,458 → 6,864 seatsA320
Kigali−50.9%
Rwanda · KGL
6,996 → 3,432 seatsA320
San Francisco−42.4%
USA · SFO
30,084 → 17,331 seatsA350-1000
Peshawar−36.0%
Pakistan · PEW
17,696 → 11,328 seatsA321neo
London Gatwick−25.7%
UK · LGW
44,359 → 32,966 seatsB787-9
Jeddah−21.5%
Saudi Arabia · JED
150,198 → 117,922 seatsB787-8 / B787-9

Capacity flow map.
DOH hub shifts visualised.

Teal arcs — biggest seat gains from DOH. Red arcs — biggest reductions. The geographic pattern is clear: east and south growing, North America and some European routes retreating.

Seat gains
Seat reductions
DOH hub

Exits & additions.
What changed at the route level.

Routes absent from Q4 2026 that were operated in Q4 2025, and the single net-new destination. QR had just 1 new destination in Q4 2026 — all other shifts are frequency and gauge changes on existing city pairs.

ExitsRoutes in Q4 2025, absent Q4 2026
Aleppo
Syria · ALP · Middle East
Was: 45 flt · 10,801 seats Q4-25
Geopolitical — conflict disruption
Luanda
Angola · LAD · Africa
Was: 4 flt · 1,016 seats Q4-25
Not transferred to new NBJ airport — genuine exit
Izmir
Türkiye · ADB · Europe
Was: 1 flt · 144 seats Q4-25
Charter / minimal service suspended
NewRoutes in Q4 2026, not in Q4 2025
HailNEW
Saudi Arabia · HAS · Middle East
40 flt · 5,760 seats Q4-26A320
QR's sole new destination in Q4 2026

HIA slot constraints mean QR's entire Q4 2026 network evolution is driven by frequency and gauge changes — not new city pairs. The rebalancing is deep despite the near-zero headline route count change.

Fleet mix shift.
Equipment tells the strategy.

Share of total scheduled seats by aircraft type, Q4 2025 vs Q4 2026. The B787-8 is the standout growth platform. A330-300 is accelerating out. A350-1000 losing share despite being the flagship — SFO halving drives much of that.

Aircraft
Q4 2025
Q4 2026
Shift
B777-300ER
24.1%
23.7%
−0.4pp
B787-8 ▲
15.1%
18.9%
+3.8pp
A350-900
13.3%
13.1%
−0.2pp
B787-9
13.2%
13.5%
+0.3pp
A320 family
10.4%
10.4%
stable
A350-1000 ▼
10.0%
8.6%
−1.4pp
A330-300 ▼▼
5.7%
3.3%
−2.4pp
A380-800
4.2%
3.6%
−0.6pp

Three strategic reads.
What the Cirium data means.

Qatar's Q4 2026 schedule is not a contraction — it's a redirection. The ASK base is virtually unchanged; where those ASKs go has shifted meaningfully.

I
China rebound, QR capturing it
Shanghai nearly doubled to 65,868 seats per quarter. B777-300ER deployed — high-density widebody signals premium transiting traffic confidence. Post-COVID China long-haul demand is recovering faster than many carriers expected, and QR's hub geography makes DOH a natural one-stop for Europe-to-China flows.
PVG +97.8% · B777-300ER · Q4 seats: 33k → 66k
II
South + East Africa: premium leisure arc
Cape Town +25.9%, Johannesburg +19.9%, Zanzibar +46.6%, Maputo +24.3% — a coordinated Southern and East Africa push. A350 deployed throughout. The DOH–South Africa corridor is becoming a Qsuite premium leisure play: strong inbound tourism, minimal LCC competition, high business cabin yields on corporate traffic.
CPT + JNB + ZNZ + MPM combined: +60k seats/Q added
III
HIA caps force explicit trade-offs
Every gain costs something. SFO halved (−12,753 seats), Jeddah trimmed −32,276 seats, Kigali nearly exited. With HIA running at terminal capacity, each new frequency must displace a slot. The Hail addition — 1 genuinely new destination — shows how little room exists for network breadth expansion without airport expansion.
Net routes: 167 → 165 · 1 new destination · 3 exits · all other moves = reallocation