CIRIUM SCHEDULE ANALYSIS · Q4 2025 vs Q4 2026
Ethiopian Airlines · ET · ADD Hub

Seven new cities.
Luanda 5× growth.
DHC-8 spreading roots.

The strongest headline numbers of the three: seats +4.2%, ASK +6.2%, flights +8.7%. Seven genuinely new destinations in Q4 2026 — four domestic Ethiopian DHC-8 routes and three international ones. Luanda NBJ leaps +398% as Angola's new airport comes fully online with ET doubling down on the market. The B777-200LR is rapidly exiting the fleet.

CIRIUM · Q4 2025 vs Q4 2026 · PAX ONLY
41,234 SCHEDULED FLIGHTS Q4 2026
126 ROUTES · NET +5 VS Q4 2025
Source: Cirium Schedule Analytics
All statistics per quarter · Pax flights only
7.39M
Total seats Q4 2026
↑ +4.2% vs Q4 2025
23.0B
ASK Q4 2026
↑ +6.2% · longer haul mix
41,234
Scheduled flights Q4 2026
↑ +8.7% · highest growth rate
+398%
Luanda NBJ · biggest mover
5,296 → 26,394 seats/Q
126
Hub routes Q4 2026
↑ from 121 · net +5

Capacity gainers.
Where seats are flowing.

Routes with the largest Q4 seat increases from ADD. Luanda's NBJ emergence dominates the headline numbers. East Africa — Lusaka, Kilimanjaro, Zanzibar — consolidates ET's dominance in its home region. Europe gains modestly; Hong Kong is the standout Asia surprise.

Growth Biggest seat increases · ADD outbound · Q4 2025 → Q4 2026
Luanda (NBJ)+398.4%
Angola · NBJ · new airport
5,296 → 26,394 seatsB787-9 / B777-200LR
João Paulo II Intl — ET commits to full-frequency operation
Humera+300.0%
Ethiopia · HUE · domestic
1,014 → 4,056 seatsDHC-8
Dembidollo+103.1%
Ethiopia · DEM · domestic
2,151 → 4,368 seatsDHC-8
Hong Kong+73.6%
Hong Kong · HKG
14,310 → 24,840 seatsB787-8
Lusaka+54.0%
Zambia · LUN
28,896 → 44,490 seatsA350-900 / B737-800
Yaoundé+50.4%
Cameroon · NSI
13,377 → 20,120 seatsA350-900 / B737MAX
Athens+44.3%
Greece · ATH
7,318 → 10,560 seatsB737MAX
Kilimanjaro+42.0%
Tanzania · JRO
48,688 → 69,118 seatsA350-900 / B737-800
Arba Minch+41.3%
Ethiopia · AMH · domestic
15,239 → 21,528 seatsDHC-8
Zanzibar+35.5%
Tanzania · ZNZ
48,063 → 65,114 seatsA350-900 / B737-800
Geneva+34.8%
Switzerland · GVA
23,407 → 31,556 seatsA350-900
Pullbacks Biggest seat reductions · ADD outbound · Q4 2025 → Q4 2026
Moroni−41.3%
Comoros · HAH
25,060 → 14,720 seatsB737MAX
Riyadh−36.0%
Saudi Arabia · RUH
29,562 → 18,932 seatsB787-8 / B737MAX
Makele−30.1%
Ethiopia · MQX · domestic
71,862 → 50,232 seatsDHC-8
Marseille−23.1%
France · MRS
17,848 → 13,720 seatsA350-900
Dhaka−23.3%
Bangladesh · DAC
14,083 → 10,800 seatsB787-8
Dire Dawa−21.7%
Ethiopia · DIR · domestic
63,200 → 49,484 seatsDHC-8
Delhi−20.5%
India · DEL
51,442 → 40,906 seatsB777-200LR / B777-300ER
Ouagadougou−20.7%
Burkina Faso · OUA
13,976 → 11,089 seatsB787-9 / B787-8

Capacity flow map.
ADD hub shifts visualised.

Teal arcs — biggest seat gains from ADD. Red arcs — biggest reductions. East Africa remains core; the Luanda NBJ leap and Hong Kong surge are the headline cross-continental moves. Domestic coverage deepens even as the map expands.

Seat gains
Seat reductions
ADD hub

Seven new routes.
Domestic + international expansion.

Ethiopian added 7 genuinely new destinations in Q4 2026 — the most of the three carriers studied. Four are domestic Ethiopian DHC-8 routes deepening regional connectivity. Three are international: Goma (DRC), Jizan (Saudi Arabia), and Salalah (Oman).

New routesIn Q4 2026, not in Q4 2025
Yabelo OromiaNEW
Ethiopia · BYY · domestic
53 flt · 4,134 seats Q4-26DHC-8
Debra MarcosNEW
Ethiopia · DBM · domestic
40 flt · 3,120 seats Q4-26DHC-8
GoreNEW
Ethiopia · GOR · domestic
39 flt · 3,042 seats Q4-26DHC-8
Mizan TeferiNEW
Ethiopia · MTF · domestic
40 flt · 3,120 seats Q4-26DHC-8
GomaNEW
DR Congo · GOM · international
55 flt · 7,336 seats Q4-26B737 / B737MAX
JizanNEW
Saudi Arabia · GIZ · international
66 flt · 10,900 seats Q4-26B737MAX / B737-800
SalalahNEW
Oman · SLL · international
40 flt · 6,400 seats Q4-26B737MAX
ExitsRoutes in Q4 2025, absent Q4 2026
Luanda (LAD)
Angola · old airport · Africa
Was: 76 flt · 22,597 seats Q4-25
Airport migration — closed LAD, full transfer to new NBJ
Wuhan
China · WUH · Asia
Was: 3 flt · 1,029 seats Q4-25
Minimal service — market exited
Luanda airport context

LAD (Quatro de Fevereiro) closed in 2023; Angola's new João Paulo II International (NBJ) is now the operating airport. ET's LAD "exit" and NBJ +398% growth is the same Luanda market — ET significantly increased capacity at the new airport, from 5,296 to 26,394 seats per quarter.

Fleet mix shift.
Equipment tells the strategy.

Share of total scheduled seats by aircraft type, Q4 2025 vs Q4 2026. The DHC-8 grows its share as domestic expansion accelerates. B777-200LR is in rapid withdrawal — down 4pp. B787-9 and B737MAX both gaining share as the modern widebody and narrowbody platforms respectively.

Aircraft
Q4 2025
Q4 2026
Shift
DHC-8 ▲
27.4%
29.6%
+2.2pp
B737-800
21.0%
20.7%
−0.3pp
B787-8
17.5%
17.0%
−0.5pp
B787-9 ▲
15.3%
17.1%
+1.8pp
B737MAX ▲
6.4%
7.9%
+1.5pp
A350-900
5.9%
5.6%
−0.3pp
B777-200LR ▼▼
6.4%
2.4%
−4.0pp
B777-300ER ▼
6.1%
4.7%
−1.4pp

Three strategic reads.
What the Cirium data means.

Ethiopian is the fastest-growing of the three carriers in this dataset — and uniquely, it's expanding the route map itself, not just reallocating capacity within existing cities.

I
Africa's hub deepening domestic reach
Four new domestic Ethiopian routes using DHC-8 — Yabelo, Debra Marcos, Gore, Mizan Teferi — plus significant growth at Arba Minch, Goba, Jinka, and Asosa. ET is systematically expanding coverage of Ethiopia's secondary cities, building the domestic feed that makes ADD's international network commercially viable. No other African carrier matches this domestic depth.
DHC-8 seat share: +2.2pp · 4 new domestic cities · domestic routes dominate volume
II
Luanda NBJ: a commitment, not migration
LAD "exit" + NBJ +398% = same city, but ET dramatically scaled up. Where QR left the Luanda market entirely and EK transferred capacity roughly flat, ET went from 22,597 seats at LAD to 26,394 seats at NBJ — a net increase on top of the airport migration. Angola's economic recovery and ET's pan-African network strategy align on this route.
LAD (closed): 76 flt / 22,597 seats → NBJ: 26,394 seats · net growth +17%
III
B777-200LR phase-out accelerating
The B777-200LR is rapidly exiting ET's fleet — from 6.4% to 2.4% of seat production, a 4pp drop in a single quarter comparison. Delhi, which had been a 777-200LR route, shows a −20.5% reduction. The type is being replaced by B787-9 and B737MAX where ranges overlap. B777-300ER also declining 1.4pp, suggesting ET's B777 era is winding down in favour of the Dreamliner family.
B777-200LR: 6.4% → 2.4% seat share · −4.0pp · fastest decline in ET fleet