CIRIUM SCHEDULE ANALYSIS · Q4 2025 vs Q4 2026
Emirates · EK · DXB Hub

Tehran exits.
Africa lifts off.
A350 doubles.

Total seats up just 0.9%, but the composition has shifted dramatically. 70,535 seats to Tehran erased — the largest single-route capacity change in the dataset. Africa surges to fill the gap: Nairobi +50%, Cape Town +42%, Luanda airport migration driving NBJ +66%. The A350-900's share of EK's seat production nearly doubles from 5.6% to 10.3%.

CIRIUM · Q4 2025 vs Q4 2026 · PAX ONLY
47,753 SCHEDULED FLIGHTS Q4 2026
128 ROUTES · NET −3 VS Q4 2025
Source: Cirium Schedule Analytics
All statistics per quarter · Pax flights only
19.0M
Total seats Q4 2026
↑ +0.9% vs Q4 2025
96.9B
ASK Q4 2026
↑ +1.9% · longer haul mix
47,753
Scheduled flights Q4 2026
↑ +2.6% vs Q4 2025
−70.5k
Tehran IKA · seats lost
203 flt · 70,535 seats gone
128
Hub routes Q4 2026
↓ from 131 · net −3

Capacity gainers.
Where seats are flowing.

Routes with the largest Q4 seat increases from DXB. Africa dominates — Nairobi, Cape Town, Luanda (new airport), Phuket and Tokyo lead the surge. A380 and B777-300ER doing the heavy lifting across the growth portfolio.

Growth Biggest seat increases · DXB outbound · Q4 2025 → Q4 2026
Luanda (NBJ)+66.1%
Angola · NBJ · new airport
14,068 → 23,364 seatsB777-300ER
João Paulo II Intl replaces LAD — same city, new code
Tokyo Narita+50.7%
Japan · NRT
44,515 → 67,104 seatsB777-300ER / A380
Nairobi+50.4%
Kenya · NBO
65,410 → 98,400 seatsB777-300ER
Cape Town+42.1%
South Africa · CPT
64,076 → 91,080 seatsB777-300ER / A350-900
Guangzhou+41.6%
China · CAN
33,108 → 46,892 seatsA380-800
Copenhagen+41.0%
Denmark · CPH
56,580 → 79,764 seatsA350-900 / A380-800
Phuket+39.6%
Thailand · HKT
65,257 → 91,080 seatsB777-300ER / A350-900
Hong Kong+21.7%
Hong Kong · HKG
74,645 → 90,849 seatsA380-800
Bali+20.8%
Indonesia · DPS
93,685 → 113,160 seatsA380-800
Cairo+19.9%
Egypt · CAI
177,293 → 212,564 seatsB777-300ER / A380
Orlando+19.7%
USA · MCO
23,364 → 27,966 seatsB777-300ER
Zurich+15.2%
Switzerland · ZRH
77,515 → 89,332 seatsA380-800
Pullbacks Biggest seat reductions · DXB outbound · Q4 2025 → Q4 2026
Ho Chi Minh City−16.8%
Vietnam · SGN
65,035 → 54,096 seatsA350-900 / B777-200LR
Perth−15.9%
Australia · PER
51,213 → 43,056 seatsA380-800
Seattle−15.8%
USA · SEA
30,172 → 25,392 seatsB777-200LR
Beirut−14.7%
Lebanon · BEY
68,358 → 58,328 seatsB777-300ER / B777-200LR
Baghdad−12.7%
Iraq · BGW
31,944 → 27,878 seatsA350-900
Riyadh−12.0%
Saudi Arabia · RUH
103,054 → 90,700 seatsB777-300ER
Rome Da Vinci−10.4%
Italy · FCO
90,274 → 80,868 seatsB777-300ER / A380
Prague−10.8%
Czech Republic · PRG
56,484 → 50,380 seatsA380-800

Capacity flow map.
DXB hub shifts visualised.

Teal arcs — biggest seat gains from DXB. Red arcs — biggest reductions. Africa and Asia Pacific lead the growth story. Middle East connectivity trims in several corridors while the A350-900 fleet enables new European point-to-point capacity.

Seat gains
Seat reductions
DXB hub

Exits & additions.
What changed at the route level.

Four routes absent from Q4 2026, one new destination added. The Tehran closure dominates — 203 flights and 70,535 seats removed in a single market. Helsinki is EK's sole truly new city pair in Q4 2026.

ExitsRoutes in Q4 2025, absent Q4 2026
Tehran−70,535 SEATS
Iran · IKA · Middle East
Was: 203 flt · 70,535 seats Q4-25
Political/sanctions — largest single route exit in the dataset
Damascus
Syria · DAM · Middle East
Was: 28 flt · 8,456 seats Q4-25
Conflict disruption — market suspended
Luanda (LAD)
Angola · old airport · Africa
Was: 20 flt · 7,086 seats Q4-25
Airport migration to NBJ — LAD closed, capacity transferred
Dakar
Senegal · DSS · West Africa
Was: 1 flt · 354 seats Q4-25
Minimal service — charter / trial route suspended
NewRoutes in Q4 2026, not in Q4 2025
HelsinkiNEW
Finland · HEL · Europe
92 flt · 27,416 seats Q4-26A350-900
EK's sole new destination — A350 deployed, not A380
Iran market context

The 70,535 seats lost to Tehran represent roughly 3.7% of EK's total Q4 2025 DXB-outbound seat production. Losing an entire market of that scale — while posting only a 0.9% total seat increase — means the gains to Africa, Japan, and Southeast Asia had to more than compensate for Tehran's removal.

Fleet mix shift.
Equipment tells the strategy.

Share of total scheduled seats by aircraft type, Q4 2025 vs Q4 2026. The A350-900's near-doubling to 10.3% is the standout. B777-300ER remains dominant but cedes ground. A380 holds broadly stable — still the backbone of EK's high-density routes.

Aircraft
Q4 2025
Q4 2026
Shift
B777-300ER ▼
49.7%
43.9%
−5.8pp
A380-800
37.6%
38.2%
+0.6pp
A350-900 ▲▲
5.6%
10.3%
+4.7pp
B777-200LR ▼
7.0%
6.3%
−0.7pp
Other / cargo
1.3%
+1.2pp

Three strategic reads.
What the Cirium data means.

Emirates' Q4 2026 schedule reads as a carefully managed substitution — absorbing a major political market exit while sustaining overall seat growth through Africa and Asia Pacific.

I
Tehran: a political market gone overnight
203 flights and 70,535 seats removed in a single market is structural, not tactical. IKA was a meaningful pillar of EK's Middle East feed — connecting Gulf diaspora and business traffic to Europe and Asia via DXB. The removal has no short-term replacement; EK absorbed the hit through distributed growth rather than any single substitute route.
IKA: 203 flt / 70,535 seats Q4-25 → 0 Q4-26 · largest exit in dataset
II
Africa: the growth engine accelerates
Nairobi +50.4% (98,400 seats), Cape Town +42.1% (91,080 seats), Phuket +39.6%, Luanda airport migration adding another 9,296 seats — Africa is doing the heavy lifting. B777-300ER deployed on Africa's trunk routes signals genuine yield confidence. EK's African network is now large enough that seat counts rival many carriers' total long-haul output.
NBO + CPT + NBJ combined: +53k seats/Q added vs Q4-25
III
A350 deployment: the fleet pivot in numbers
The A350-900 nearly doubling from 5.6% to 10.3% of EK's seat output is the most visible structural shift in the fleet mix. Helsinki launches on A350, not A380 — indicating the type is now trusted for new route development. Copenhagen's A350/A380 mix and Cape Town's A350 deployment confirm the type filling mid-market roles previously held solely by the 777.
A350-900: 5.6% → 10.3% fleet share · +4.7pp · Helsinki new on A350